ARIMA Model based Time Series Modelling and Prediction of Foreign Exchange Rate against US Dollar

Exchange rate forecasting has proven challenging for players like traders and professionals in this current financial industry. Econometric and statistical models are often utilized in the analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rate. Governments, financial organizations, and investors prioritize analyzing the future behaviour of currency pairs because this analyzing technique is being utilized to understand a country's economic status and to make a decision on whether to do any transactions of goods from that country. Several models are used to predict this kind of time-series with adequate accuracy. However, because of the random nature of these time series, strong predicting performance is difficult to achieve. During the Covid-19 situation, there is a drastic change in the exchange rate worldwide. This paper examines the behaviour of Australia's (AUD) daily foreign exchange rates against the US Dollar from January 2016 to December 2020 and forecasts the 2021 exchange rate using the ARIMA model. For better accuracy, technical indicators such as Interest Rate Differential, GDP Growth Rate and Unemployment Rate are also taken into account. In exchange rate forecasting, there are various types of performance measures based on which the accuracy of the forecasted result is computed. This paper examines seven performance measures and found that the accuracy of the forecasted results is adequate with the actual data. © 2022 IEEE.

An LSTM1 Model for Managing Epidemics: Using Population Mobility and Vulnerability for Forecasting COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

Worldwide epidemics, such as corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), cause unprecedented challenges for society and its healthcare systems. Governments attempt to mitigate those challenges by either reducing healthcare demand ("flattening the curve" by imposing restrictions, e.g., on travel or social gatherings) or by increasing healthcare capacity, for example, by canceling elective procedures or setting up field hospitals. To implement these mitigation procedures efficiently, accurate and timely forecasts of the epidemic's progression are necessary. In this paper, we develop an innovative forecasting methodology based on the ideas of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. LSTM models are shown to outperform traditional forecasting models, especially when the relationship between input and output is complex and not available in closed form. However, whereas LSTM models perform well for data that changes dynamically over time, one shortcoming is that they are not directly applicable when the data also includes static, nontemporal components. In this work, we propose an LSTM+ model that overcomes this limitation. Our model leverages a private partnership with a mobile data company in order to capture population mobility (using mobility indices derived from mobile device data), which allows us to anticipate an epidemic's spread early and accurately. In addition, we also leverage a public partnership with a consortium of hospitals. Using hospital admissions (rather than, say, positive caseload) results in an unbiased measure of the severity of an epidemic because patients seek and are admitted to hospital care only when symptoms worsen beyond a critical point. We illustrate the effectiveness of our method on forecasting COVID-19 for a major U.S. metropolitan area where it has aided decision makers of the emergency policy group. Our model improves the predictive accuracy of hospital admission by a factor of 2.5x as compared with competing models in the same analytical space.

Roles and Impact of ASHA Workers in Combating COVID-19: Case Study Bhubaneswar

The present COVID attack has significantly accentuated vulnerability of infections at community level where their basic healthcare and immunization program are being implemented by the ICDS scheme launched in 1975 through a slew of AWCs scattered all over the country. The AWC acts as a primary health center that provides supplementary nutrition to children (between 0 and 6 years of age) and pregnant and lactating mothers besides providing preschool education to children in the age group of 4–6 years. The ASHA workers associated with AWC under then NRHM are the first hand health workers available to them at the community level who act as a bridge between the dispensaries and the community members. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the role of ASHA workers has assumed increased salience as the governments are relying on them for community level combating of this outbreak. This paper takes a close look at fund allocations to the public healthcare sector among the developing and developed countries and also the interstate allocations and allocations for major schemes and the resultant impact on HDI. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

A study on the morbid histopathological changes in COVID-19 patients with or without comorbidities using minimally invasive tissue sampling

Introduction: COVID-19 causes morbid pathological changes in different organs including lungs, kidney, liver,etc especially in those who succumb. Though clinical outcomes in those with comorbidities are known to be different from those without - not much is known about the differences at histopathological level. Aim(s): It was to compare the morbid histopathological changes in COVID-19 patients between those who were immunocompromised(Gr 1), malignancy(Gr 2) or had cardiometabolic conditions (hypertension, diabetes or coronary artery disease)(Gr 3). Method(s): Post-mortem tissue sampling (MITS) was done from the lungs, kidney, heart, and liver using biopsy gun within two hours of death. Routine (H & E stain) and special stains (AFB, SM, PAS) were done besides immunohistochemistry. Result(s): A total of 100 patients underwent MITS and data of 92 were included (immunocompromised: 27, maligancy:18, cardiometabolic conditions:71). Within lung histopathology, capillary congestion was more in those with malignancy while others like diffuse alveolar damage, microthrombi, pneumocyte hyperplasia etc was equally distributed. Within liver, architecture distortion was significantly different in immunocompromised while steatosis, portal inflammation, Kupffer cell hypertrophy, confluent necrosis were equally distributed. There was a trend towards higher acute tubular injury in those with cardiometabolic conditions as compared to the other groups. No significant histopathological differences in heart was discerned. Conclusion(s): Certain histopathological features are markedly different in different groups (Gr 1,2 and3)of COVID-19 patients with fatal outcome.

Impact of mobility based network on COVID-19 spread

COVID-19 has had a strong impact on this world. With the spreading of the virus and the implementation of various mitigation measures, the pandemic has indubitably upended our way of living. Research indicates that mobility is one of the key reasons of the spread. The purpose of this paper is to provide a suitable mobility measure based on intra-county and inter-county movements on the spreading of COVID-19 in the United States. Deviating from the extant research, which measures mobility by the average distance people travel, we operationalise mobility by the number of trips made. We further weigh them based on the current caseload, as the spread will not only depend on how many people are moving but also the proportion of infectious people within them. We also distinguish such trips based on their origin and destination, as that may help in taking appropriate policy decisions for intervention.

Therapeutic considerations for prevention and treatment of thrombotic events in COVID-19

Thrombosis is a known complication of SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly within a severely symptomatic subset of patients with COVID-19 disease, in whom an aggressive host immune response leads to cytokine storm syndrome (CSS). The incidence of thrombotic events coinciding with CSS may contribute to the severe morbidity and mortality observed in association with COVID-19. This review provides an overview of pharmacologic approaches based upon an emerging understanding of the mechanisms responsible for thrombosis across a spectrum of COVID-19 disease involving an interplay between immunologic and pro-thrombotic events, including endothelial injury, platelet activation, altered coagulation pathways, and impaired fibrinolysis. © 2022

Hemodynamic changes in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection presenting for cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia: a retrospective case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Early studies suggested that COVID-19 was associated with a higher incidence of hypotension following neuraxial anesthesia in parturients. We explored the hemodynamic response to spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery in pregnant severe respiratory distress syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive patients, using a retrospective case-control design. METHODS: We searched our electronic medical records for patients who received spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery, and were SARS-CoV-2 positive or recovered at delivery, and used historical and SARS-CoV-2 negative controls from two tertiary care hospitals. We compared the demographic, clinical, and hemodynamic variables between patients who were SARS-CoV-2 positive at delivery, those who were positive during pregnancy and recovered before delivery, and controls. Analyses were stratified by normotensive versus hypertensive status of the patients at delivery. RESULTS: We identified 22 SARS-CoV-2 positive, 73 SARS-CoV-2 recovered, and 1517 controls. The SARS-CoV-2 positive, and recovered pregnant patients, had on average 5.6 and 2.2 mmHg, respectively, higher post-spinal mean arterial pressures (MAPs) than control patients, adjusting for covariates. Additionally, the lowest post-spinal MAP was negatively correlated with the number of daysbetween the onset of COVID-19 symptoms and delivery in patients with hypertension (correlation -0.55, 95% CI -0.81 to -0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy exhibit less spinal hypotension than non-infected patients. While the clinical significance of this finding is unknown, it points to important cardiovascular effects of the virus.

Emergency medicine resident involvement in emergency medical services

Introduction: Emergency medical services (EMS) are a critical component to Emergency Medicine (EM) residency training. In the United States, the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has established minimum training requirements for EM residency programs. Since the last study exploring resident EMS involvement was performed, there have been over 100 new EM resident programs started. Given the rapid increase in new EM programs, we sought to determine EMS experiences provided to current EM residents. Materials and Methods: A 22-question anonymous online survey was distributed through E-mail to program directors of approved EM residencies in October 2020. A follow-up reminder was sent 3 weeks later. Results: In total, 51 of 257 programs responded (20% response rate). Forty-five percent of EM residents experience between 10 and 25 EMS calls during their residency, 31% experience 26-50, and 20% experience >50 calls. The majority of programs (53%) have a separate EMS rotation where residents function as observers, 24% of residents function as providers, and 25% also have residents respond in a dedicated physician response vehicle. Aeromedical exposure is limited (47% have none and 43% average only 1-9 flights). Two-thirds of programs (67%) have residents provide online medical command during their ED shifts and 61% require residents to provide didactics to EMS clinicians. Despite ACGME requirements, only two-thirds of programs (69%) provide training about disaster/mass casualty incident (MCI) management and 67% have them participate in a disaster/MCI drill. About one-third of programs (31%) have decreased EMS experiences due to limited time in the residency curriculum, and 20% of programs have limited EMS experiences due to the COVID pandemic. Conclusions: The majority of responding EM residency programs meet ACGME EMS-related requirements. There is an opportunity for improvement around disaster education based on these data. Limited time in the curriculum and the COVID pandemic were cited as reasons that programs have limited their EMS experiences. The following core competencies are addressed in this article: Practice-Based Learning and Improvement, Medical Knowledge. © 2022 The authors.

Ai-Driven Covid-19 Mrna Vaccine Degradation Prediction

Background/Objective: Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines have emerged as a promising treatment for the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but such a solution has its challenges. One such issue is the mRNA vaccine's molecular stability, which requires that it be kept under certain environmental conditions that restrict its global outreach in packages, such as disposable syringes, distributed worldwide using refrigeration. Designing an environmentally stable mRNA vaccine that can withstand shipment worldwide is a challenge, since a single slit or puncture can render the complete dose of the vaccine useless. If not kept under certain environmental conditions and left unmonitored, mRNA vaccines tend to degrade rapidly. To address this problem, agencies currently store mRNA vaccines under strict refrigeration, thus limiting their global reach. The objective was to develop a hybrid deep learning model that can efficiently predict mRNA vaccine degradation rate from RNA sequences, thus aiding researchers and scientists in designing and developing a more stable mRNA vaccine in the future Results: Research presented here discusses the capability of the in-house developed hybrid deep learning model. Conclusion(s): The model was developed with a performance of 0.2430 mean columnwise root-mean-squared error (MCRMSE) score on the test data.

Resilience of Healthcare Providers during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Rapid Assessment using Digital Platform

Introduction: Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic exposed the health workforce to an unprecedented occupational hazard. While taking care of patients they always had to be conscious simultaneously for safeguarding themselves and their family members against the highly infectious virus. In West Bengal, cases were first reported in the last week of March-2020 and reached the peak around October-2020 in the first wave, once the lockdown was lifted. During the initial months, the staggering number of cases, prevailing uncertainty over case management, and untimely demise of colleagues and relatives, took their toll on the physical and mental health of doctors, paramedics, or support staff, both in the government and private sectors. Aim(s): To measure perceived stress, resilience and psychological well-being of healthcare providers using standard psychometric tools. Material(s) and Method(s): This was a cross-sectional observational study carried out among healthcare workers in hospitals located in West Bengal, India. A self-administered questionnaire was circulated through a digital platform between June-November 2020. The questionnaire was designed using Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10), Kessler-6 (K6), and Brief Resilient Coping Scale (BRCS) to assess perceived stress, psychiatric morbidity, and resilience of the person. It had three parts, one to capture socio-demographic details of the participants including age, sex, marital status, occupation, family history of psychiatric morbidity, place of stay etc. Second part consisted of psychometric scales and third was designed to capture the views of participants on the coping strategies. Calculated sample size was 189. Result(s): Based on standard cut-off values, it was found that 65.6% subjects were under moderate or severe stress;56.6% had compromised mental well-being and 64% were not coping well with the pandemic situation. PSS were significantly poor for females(p-value<0.001),single(p-value<0.001)andthosewithout history of psychiatric morbidity (p-value <0.001) and low resilient copers (p<0.0001). Mental well-being was compromised more among married (p-value=0.01), doctors (p-value=0.008), aged <40 years (p-value=0.003), high resilient copers (p-value=0.02). Popular means of stress reliever were music and yoga/exercise. Correct and updated knowledge on disease transmission, availability of personal protective equipment, pursuing hobbies like music and gardening were few suggested measures to improve coping with stress associated with patient care. Conclusion(s): The study revealed that majority of the health workers experienced moderate to heavy degree of stress and compromised psychological well-being during the first wave of pandemic. Relationship of stress and psychological wellbeing with resilience and socio-demographic variables was not always linear. Copyright © 2022 Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research. All rights reserved.

Secondary Educators' Writing Practices for Students with Disabilities: Examining Distance Learning and In-Person Instruction

We report results of a national survey of secondary teachers who teach special education and/or English language arts in the United States. A total of 50 teachers from 27 different states completed the survey. In the survey, we asked teachers about their experience delivering distance and in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. We specifically focused on three broad areas: writing assignments, writing instructional practices, and adaptations used to support students with disabilities. We also collected information about teacher characteristics, technology use, and teacher attitudes and self-efficacy about writing. On average, teachers reported receiving minimal preparation to teach writing via distance or in-person instruction. When compared to in-person instruction, teachers reported using fewer writing assignments, evidence-based writing practices, and adaptations for students with disabilities during distance learning. We provide implications for teacher professional development and detail limitations related to sample size and response rate © The Author(s) 2022.

DEVELOPING CRITICAL CARING PEDAGOGY: Teacher Education in Service of Students in Black Rural Spaces after COVID

This chapter explores care in Black rural education through the lens of critical caring pedagogy. The authors consider the impact of COVID-19 on Black rural education and, consequently, the need for teacher education post-COVID to better prepare teacher candidates to meet the needs of their Black rural students. Through critical caring pedagogy, teacher candidates can learn to center and care for students in Black rural spaces while understanding how complex history and biases about families and communities can impact issues of care and equity. © 2023 selection and editorial matter, Melanie Shoffner and Angela W. Webb;individual chapters, the contributors.

The Detection of Periodic Reemergence Events of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Strain in Communities Dominated by Omicron.

Despite entering an endemic phase, SARS-CoV-2 remains a significant burden to public health across the global community. Wastewater sampling has consistently proven utility to understanding SARS-CoV-2 prevalence trends and genetic variation as it represents a less biased assessment of the corresponding communities. Here, we report that ongoing monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variation in samples obtained from the wastewatersheds of the city of Louisville in Jefferson county Kentucky has revealed the periodic reemergence of the Delta strain in the presence of the presumed dominant Omicron strain. Unlike previous SARS-CoV-2 waves/emergence events, the Delta reemergence events were geographically restricted in the community and failed to spread into other areas as determined by wastewater analyses. Moreover, the reemergence of the Delta strain did not correlate with vaccination rates as communities with lower relative vaccination have been, to date, not affected. Importantly, Delta reemergence events correlate with increased public health burdens, as indicated by increased daily case rates and mortality relative to non-Delta wastewatershed communities. While the underlying reasons for the reemergence of the Delta variant remain unclear, these data reaffirm the ongoing importance of wastewater genomic analyses towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 as it enters the endemic phase.

Perception, Working Experience and Psychiatric Morbidity among Information Technology Professionals during COVID-19 Lockdown: A Cross-sectional Survey

Introduction: In the year 2020, the functioning of the world changed in a big way. For a large part of the year, the world stayed locked indoor, due to the novel Coronavirus Disease -2019 (COVID-19). The need for Information Technology (IT) has reached a new height, and this is certain to persist. Though the IT professionals were mostly working indoors in 'work from home' mode, work pressure and boredom increased according to few studies. Work from home also has different set of employees' expectations and organisational responsibilities. Aim(s): To assess the psychiatric morbidity working experience and related perspectives of the new normal, as perceived by IT professionals. Material(s) and Method(s): This cross-sectional survey was conducted in Institute of Post Graduate Medical Education and Research (IPGME&R), Kolkata, West Bengal, India, between May 2020 and August 2020. A Google form-based survey was done which aimed to reach throughout the country. Consent was included as the first question of the form. An ethical clearance was taken from Institutional Ethical Committee of IPGME&R, Kolkata in convenience sampling of IT professionals. For the survey, a semistructured questionnaire was developed and Brief Resilience Coping Scale (BRCS), Ten Items Personality Inventory (TIPI), and K6 psychiatric morbidity screener were used to measure the psychiatric morbidity. Snow ball sampling methods was used to get the sample through free sharing of google forms over the internet. Relevant statistical tests were used to analyse the data, where p<0.05 had been considered significant. Result(s): Total 72 IT professionals responded to the survey but only 71 were included due lack of informed consent. About 20 (28.2%) showed a high risk of losing their job as per their perception and 35 (49.29%) were highly worried about having COVID-19, while 44 (61.9%) were highly worried about bringing the infection home. 78.9% (n=71) showed screener positive psychiatric morbidity. Psychiatric morbidity was only dependent on "emotional stability" as a personality trait and "risk of Job loss" by regression analysis. Total 67 people were working from home, 37 (55.22%) felt the family time had increased, 28 (41.79%) felt family was happier due to work from home. Conclusion(s): This study showed the psychiatric morbidity of IT professionals was quite high and it was not related to their resilience level and own perception of morbidity. Psychiatric morbidity was determined by emotional stability, and the threat of losing jobs. It also shed light on disease perception and state of work perception of IT professionals. Though work from home mode may compromise the work quality slightly but it was good for the families and personal stress levels of the employees. Copyright © 2022 Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research. All rights reserved.

ORGANIZING PNEUMONIA WITH FOREIGN BODY REACTION AS A RESULT OF SODIUM HYDROXIDE AND AMMONIUM SALT VAPOR EXPOSURE

SESSION TITLE: Occupational and Environmental Lung Disease Cases SESSION TYPE: Rapid Fire Case Reports PRESENTED ON: 10/18/2022 12:25 pm - 01:25 pm INTRODUCTION: Sodium hydroxide and ammonium salt vapor exposure are known to cause epithelial necrosis of the tracheobronchial tree, but no pathologic descriptions exist of subsequent inflammatory pneumonitis. CASE PRESENTATION: A 56-year-old man presented to the outpatient clinic with 2 months of progressive scant hemoptysis and dyspnea on exertion. He had a mild smoking history, a history of longstanding stable UC, and had a history significant only for recently performing multiple weeks of cleaning work on a large, enclosed HVAC system with chemicals containing sodium hydroxide and ammonium. He wore no respiratory protection at work. CXR was significant for streaky bilateral lower lobe opacities and CT Chest revealed bilateral basilar ground-glass opacities with a small left pneumothorax. His PFT demonstrated mild restriction with a diffusion defect. Infiltrates persisted after treatment with levofloxacin. A broad autoimmune panel was normal. Bronchoscopy with cryobiopsy showed organizing pneumonia with foreign body reaction. BAL showed primarily mast cells and no organisms were found. Prednisone at 60mg daily with Bactrim prophylaxis and a subsequent prolonged wean was initiated with marked improvement. DISCUSSION: Industrial HVAC cleaning agents are widely used with the proliferation of HVAC systems in the post-COVID world. Other examples exist of prolonged cleaning product use and lung function decline (Svanes et al). Our case report hypothesizes a link between inhalational exposure to sodium hydroxide and ammonium salts with organizing pneumonia with foreign body features, a previously unknown effect. Prednisone led to improvement. CONCLUSIONS: High suspicion for occult pneumonitis should exist when patients present with prolonged exposure to cleaning/noxious chemical vapors exist. Respiratory protection should be emphasized as a public health policy to prevent lung damage among any type of cleaner use including high-skilled (HVAC) cleaners. Reference #1: Advenier, A., & Grandmaison, G. (2022). PULMONARY ACUTE LESIONS AFTER CAUSTIC EXPOSURE. Retrieved 31 March 2022, from https://www.lungdiseasesjournal.com/articles/pulmonary-acute-lesions-after-caustic-exposure.html Reference #2: Svanes, Ø., Bertelsen, R. J., Lygre, S., Carsin, A. E., Antó, J. M., Forsberg, B., García-García, J. M., Gullón, J. A., Heinrich, J., Holm, M., Kogevinas, M., Urrutia, I., Leynaert, B., Moratalla, J. M., Le Moual, N., Lytras, T., Norbäck, D., Nowak, D., Olivieri, M., Pin, I., … Svanes, C. (2018). Cleaning at Home and at Work in Relation to Lung Function Decline and Airway Obstruction. American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine, 197(9), 1157–1163. https://doi.org/10.1164/rccm.201706-1311OC Reference #3: Gorguner, M., & Akgun, M. (2010). Acute inhalation injury. The Eurasian journal of medicine, 42(1), 28–35. https://doi.org/10.5152/eajm.2010.09 DISCLOSURES: no disclosure on file for Ai-Yui Maria Tan;No relevant relationships by Sudha Misra No relevant relationships by Amrik Ray